PRESS RELEASE 23 June 2025
The risk of an attack on the British bases in Cyprus because of the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as cuts to UN mission budgets, have led to an increase in the Sapienta Cyprus Problem Risk Index, according to index creator Sapienta Economics.
On a scale of 0 to 5, where 5 is the most risky, the index for the first quarter of 2025 is back in the upper half of the “Medium risk” status, with a score of 2.58, compared with 2.24 in the first quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, the index is still lower than in the same period of 2024, owing to relative stability in the UN-monitored buffer zone.
“The recent arrest of an alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guard member apparently spying on the British Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs), plus attempts by some countries to suggest that Cyprus or the British bases are involved in attacks on Iran, raise the risk of a direct attack on the island,” said Sapienta Economics Director, Fiona Mullen. “Cuts to UN budgets—both the peacemaking Good Offices Mission and the peacekeeping UNFICYP mission—also raise risks, given the UN’s important diplomacy role in quietly tempering inter-communal tensions.”
The Sapienta Cyprus Problem Risk Index has a category called “Curveball”: unmodelled, high-risk events. “No model is perfect so the Curveball risk captures new risks that can flare up or subside quickly, and which could de-stabilize relations between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots/ Türkiye (Turkey), or affect the risk of conflict more generally,” said Mullen. “The risk of an attack on the British Bases constitutes a Curveball risk.”
The Sapienta Cyprus Problem Risk Index is compiled from 10 overarching factors that influence the intensity of the Cyprus problem. Each of the 10 factors has a factual state-of-play that can change over time. States-of-play include but are not limited to military activity in the UN-monitored buffer zone, in maritime areas offshore, Turkey’s external relations and the status of the UN and negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem. The report on the latest index change can be purchased from “shop single reports” section of the Sapienta Economics website.
More details
Sapienta Economics Ltd is a consultancy based in the Republic of Cyprus. The company produces economic and political analysis, primarily on Cyprus, for prestigious international and local clients. It is committed to independent analysis and has no ties to any government or political party, either in Cyprus or abroad. Clients of its monthly flagship Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus include more than a dozen embassies, big four accounting firms, oil and gas majors, banks, fund managers, large foreign direct investors and others.
The Sapienta Cyprus Problem Risk Index model is built by Fiona Mullen, who has spent much of the past 20+ years both professionally and voluntarily closely engaged on the Cyprus problem, including as a staff member and consultant with the UN Good Offices Mission, and as co-author of multiple reports with the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) on the economic opportunities of a united Cyprus. Lately she has been producing proposals for updating the design of the negotiations process and strategic support for a settlement. Close acquaintance with how local and geopolitical developments affect the fragility of the Cyprus problem have informed the selection of categories and the weights for each category. Mullen is the author of the flagship, in-depth Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus.