01 Aug 2019 Cyprus macroeconomic highlights 2012-18

Posted by on Aug 1, 2019 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

2012: back into recession. The year in which Cyprus slipped back into its second recession since 1974 (the first was in 2009), as the financial crisis loomed. Real GDP shrank by 2.9% as tourism slowed, retail sales contracted and construction collapsed. The government’s budget deficit was running at an alarming 5.6% of GDP and Laiki bank ran into severe liquidity problems as deposits fled. 2013: crisis. The year of the banking crisis, the unprecedented bail-in followed by the international...

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04 Jun 2019 Our latest Cyprus analysis

Posted by on Jun 4, 2019 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

In our latest Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus authored by @FionaMullenCY we update our debt forecast and analyze ability to service debt in the short to medium term. We analyze Bank of Cyprus’ latest results, including trends in net interest and non-interest income. We take a closer look at Hellenic’s latest shareholding structure. We analyze the latest macroeconomic data to assess the direction the economy is heading. We look at the Republic of Cyprus’ challenges in preventing Turkey’s natural gas...

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28 February 2019 Executive Summary Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus

Posted by on Mar 5, 2019 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Overview 28 February 2019 Political analysis and outlook. There has been modest progress on issues relating to the Cyprus problem, probably owing to pressure from the UN Security Council. However, there are signs that a fundamental re-think of settlement design is under way, with ideas ranging from a decentralized federation, to two separate states within the EU, possibly combined with a “step by step” approach to reunification.   Structural reforms and natural gas. ExxonMobil’s discovery of an estimated 5 to...

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30 November 2018 Executive Summary Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus

Posted by on Dec 3, 2018 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

The following is a shortened version of the executive summary in the subscription product. Contact us for a free trial. POLITICAL ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK: There are few indications that negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem will resume in the coming weeks or months. Questions are being raised about any form of settlement that involves power-sharing and incentives to get started are weak. Early natural gas drilling results could change dynamics but we believe that some Greek Cypriot players may...

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11 Mar 2018 Can a Cyprus solution fix the bank NPL problem?

Posted by on Mar 13, 2018 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

This is the English version the article published in Greek in Politis on Sunday 11 March 2018.  If you read between the lines of what Danièle Nouy, the Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), said during her visit in February, the banks have only a short period in which to take major steps to fix their €21 billion problem with non-performing loans (NPLs). The European Commission is currently examining the proposed ESTIA programme, that...

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17 December 2017 Addressing Cyprus’ international reputation

Posted by on Dec 19, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

This article first appeared in the print edition of Phileleftheros on Sunday 17 December 2017 Addressing Cyprus’ international reputation By Lefteris Adilinis and Fiona Mullen This year has not been a good one for anyone involved in trying to improve Cyprus’ international reputation for probity. International media outlets have zoned in on the relationships of various personalities with Russian business, and more often than not have found a link with Cyprus. Moreover, they continue to describe Cyprus in unsavoury...

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02 Sep 2017 The Turkish Cypriot property dilemma

Posted by on Sep 2, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

If my hunch is right, then Turkey’s ‘Plan B’ after the collapse of talks in early July to solve the Cyprus problem involves four key steps. The first two are to offer permanent residence to the Maronites in their traditional villages and to open up Varosha to its original inhabitants (under whose control seems to be still under discussion). The third step would be to speed up compensation for Greek Cypriot dispossessed owners in the Immovable Property Commission (IPC),...

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31 Aug 2017 Country Analysis Cyprus: short executive summary

Posted by on Aug 31, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

CYPRUS EXEC SUM 31 AUG 2017: SAPIENTA COUNTRY ANALYSIS CYPRUS The following is a shortened version of the executive summary in the subscription product. Contact us for a free trial Political analysis and outlook: The Cyprus problem is likely to remain in limbo for a while, as the UN has taken a step back. Rumours have resurfaced about Greek Cypriot plans for a two-state solution, while Turkey has been sending mixed messages about abandoning a federal settlement. Structural reforms...

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20 Aug 2017 Politics of identity: Right or wrong?

Posted by on Aug 20, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

There is a theory doing the rounds in US politics at the moment which goes something like this: the rise of white supremacists is all the fault of the Democrats, because they have focused on the ‘politics of identity’, also sometimes called the ‘politics of victimhood’ or the ‘politics of hate’. Kinder analysis simply says it is a vote-loser and the Democrats should focus on something else instead. Below I explain why the vote-loser argument might have some merit....

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13 Aug 2017: Retailers lose out if crossing points close

Posted by on Aug 13, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

January-July this year, Turkish Cypriots spent €14.7 million using plastic cards south of the Green Line, while Greek Cypriots spent €5.1 million in the north, according to data from JCC Payment Systems. Another €1.8 million was spent by Greek Cypriots in Turkey. JCC has been producing statistics on card spending across the Green Line for 10 years: enough to see some patterns. Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot card spending is my shorthand for JCC’s “use of Turkish credit cards...

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