02 Sep 2017 The Turkish Cypriot property dilemma

Posted by on Sep 2, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

If my hunch is right, then Turkey’s ‘Plan B’ after the collapse of talks in early July to solve the Cyprus problem involves four key steps. The first two are to offer permanent residence to the Maronites in their traditional villages and to open up Varosha to its original inhabitants (under whose control seems to be still under discussion). The third step would be to speed up compensation for Greek Cypriot dispossessed owners in the Immovable Property Commission (IPC),...

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31 Aug 2017 Country Analysis Cyprus: short executive summary

Posted by on Aug 31, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

CYPRUS EXEC SUM 31 AUG 2017: SAPIENTA COUNTRY ANALYSIS CYPRUS The following is a shortened version of the executive summary in the subscription product. Contact us for a free trial Political analysis and outlook: The Cyprus problem is likely to remain in limbo for a while, as the UN has taken a step back. Rumours have resurfaced about Greek Cypriot plans for a two-state solution, while Turkey has been sending mixed messages about abandoning a federal settlement. Structural reforms...

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20 Aug 2017 Politics of identity: Right or wrong?

Posted by on Aug 20, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

There is a theory doing the rounds in US politics at the moment which goes something like this: the rise of white supremacists is all the fault of the Democrats, because they have focused on the ‘politics of identity’, also sometimes called the ‘politics of victimhood’ or the ‘politics of hate’. Kinder analysis simply says it is a vote-loser and the Democrats should focus on something else instead. Below I explain why the vote-loser argument might have some merit....

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13 Aug 2017: Retailers lose out if crossing points close

Posted by on Aug 13, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

January-July this year, Turkish Cypriots spent €14.7 million using plastic cards south of the Green Line, while Greek Cypriots spent €5.1 million in the north, according to data from JCC Payment Systems. Another €1.8 million was spent by Greek Cypriots in Turkey. JCC has been producing statistics on card spending across the Green Line for 10 years: enough to see some patterns. Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot card spending is my shorthand for JCC’s “use of Turkish credit cards...

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06 Aug 2017 EU duties to Turkish Cypriots

Posted by on Aug 6, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

In 2014, 92,000 Turkish Cypriots were eligible to vote in the 2014 Republic of Cyprus parliamentary election. This means that there are at least 92,000 EU citizens residing in northern Cyprus. If you count the children, there are even more. Inferring from the 2011 Turkish Cypriot census, I concluded there were just over around 136,000 people of (only) Turkish Cypriot origin in northern Cyprus in that year. The death of negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem, in particular declarations by Turkey...

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30 Jul 2017 Why are Cyprus milk prices so high?

Posted by on Jul 30, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Last month, the EU’s statistical service, Eurostat, published comparisons of various consumer prices across the EU. The results are based on surveys of more than 2,400 consumer goods and services. Price differences are calculated on a ‘purchasing power parity’ (PPP) basis. This means that Eurostat officials do not just compare the sales price of a litre of milk, they compare its price relative to spending power in that country. Overall, Cyprus came out lower than the EU average for...

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22 July 2017 Construction is back! (Or is it?)

Posted by on Jul 22, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

The index of production in construction produced by the Statistical Service (Cystat) reported a whopping 36.5% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2017. This followed double-digit growth rates for four out of the five preceding quarters. Growth is being led by the construction of buildings, where production expanded year on year in the first quarter by 43.4%. Civil engineering projects rose by a still robust but less dramatic 15%. It is now pretty clear what is behind the...

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16 Jul 2017 An idea of the deal that never was

Posted by on Jul 16, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

One of the greatest tragedies of the breakdown of the talks to solve the Cyprus problem in Crans-Montana last week was that we had only just found out what each party really cared about. This only really came out at the ‘last supper’, as people are now calling it, on July 6. We already knew that Greek Cypriots really cared about an end to troops and guarantees, but it was only at the dinner that it became clear (to...

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10 Jun 2017 Unite Cyprus Now proves the island’s potential

Posted by on Jul 10, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Imagine a business that takes a day to decide on a memorable slogan and hashtag, around 10 days to design its own brand colours and typeface, two weeks to grab the attention of the international media, and just a little longer to draw a crowd of over 300 punters aged three to 73. This is not a business, of course, but the remarkable flourishing of Unite Cyprus Now, a growing band of enthusiasts at the Nicosia Ledra Street (Lokmaci) crossing,...

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09 Jul 2017 Cyprus, Turkey and the four freedoms

Posted by on Jul 9, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

One of the issues on the table at the Conference on Cyprus in Crans Montana these past two weeks has been the rights of Turkish citizens in Cyprus. This has typically been described as Turkey wanting the ‘four freedoms’ (freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labour). Turkey’s specific request is that Turkish nationals should enjoy the same rights in Cyprus as Greek nationals. Are non-EU nationals an EU or national competence? Greek Cypriots have argued that giving...

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