30 Nov 2016 Sapienta Country Analysis Executive Summary Nov 2016

Posted by on Nov 30, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

The following is a shortened version of the executive summary in the subscription product. Contacts us for a free trial Political analysis and outlook: We are holding the prospects of a solution of the Cyprus problem within the next 12 months at 45% as efforts to keep the talks going continue, but are putting them on review for a significant downgrade. Structural reforms and natural gas: The timetable for gas drilling is still uncertain at a time when gas...

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27 Nov 2016 The lost opportunities of a Cyprus velvet divorce

Posted by on Nov 27, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Even before the collapse of the Cyprus negotiations in Mont Pelerin on Monday, the words ‘velvet divorce’ had been creeping up in conversations. The gist of the argument is that Cypriots are incapable of living together, so let’s end the Cyprus problem with a deal to live apart. If this is the game-plan of some of the players, then it is important to look at what is lost by not bringing the island back together in a single federal...

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20 Nov 2016 How far have Cyprus property prices fallen?

Posted by on Nov 20, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

This week, the Central Bank of Cyprus published its residential property price index for the second quarter of 2016. Prices dropped by a comparatively mild 0.5% over the previous period and by 1.7% compared with the second quarter of 2015. If you own an apartment in Paphos, the news was even better, as it was the only region that saw a year-on-year rise. Apartment prices rose by 3.3% over the same period of the previous year, although they slipped...

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12 Nov 2016 Clouds over next year’s Cyprus tourism season

Posted by on Nov 12, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

In 2016 Cyprus enjoyed a bumper tourism season, with arrivals rising by 18.8% in January-September and reaching a record 2.6 million. This week, the Minister of Commerce, Energy, Industry and Tourism, Yiorgos Lakkotrypis tweeted: “Cautiously optimistic for another strong year of #UK visitation to #BeautifulCyprus”. I hope he is right. But there are a few reasons to suggest that next year will be rather tougher than this year. Let’s take a look at the numbers to see why. Read...

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06 Nov 2016 Banks should step up on Cyprus problem

Posted by on Nov 6, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Next week, Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci will spend five days at Mont Pèlerin hashing out some of the most politically thorny aspects of the Cyprus problem. If things go well, then we shall be well on our way to the final phase: the multi-party conference in which the security aspects of the Cyprus problem are worked out and we reach a grand political deal. What the leaders will not come back from the mountain with is tablets of...

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22 Oct 2016 Northern Cyprus demographics: an update

Posted by on Oct 22, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

This week the topic of the demographics of a united Cyprus has been back in the news again. President Nicos Anastasiades said that 40,000 people of Turkish origin could stay in Cyprus after a settlement (he quickly corrected a slip of the tongue where he mentioned 90,000). It is therefore an appropriate moment to pick up what has been said and update some of the figures I presented in April 2015, in an article called ‘Northern Cyprus demographics: who...

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16 Oct 2016 Why the pound is sliding

Posted by on Oct 16, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

If you are earning an income or a pension in sterling, you are already feeling the pinch of a weaker British pound. At the time of writing, sterling was 18.3% weaker against the euro than on January 1 and 17.6% weaker than exactly a year ago. The key vulnerability for the pound is the large current-account deficit. This is essentially the gap between what the UK exports to the world in goods and services (plus a few other items...

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09 Oct 2016 Enigmas in Cyprus’ global rankings

Posted by on Oct 9, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

In 2015, the Cyprus economy clambered out of recession, the long-awaited foreclosure law was finally passed and the government submitted its proposals for public-sector reform to the Attorney-General. The start-up scene has also been busy, with initiative such as the IDEA programme sponsored by Bank of Cyprus and Chrysalis Leap. Yet somehow this was not enough to change business perceptions which form an important part of the Global Competitiveness rankings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). Cyprus’ score dropped...

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25 Sep 2016 What gas price earns Cyprus €600 million a year?

Posted by on Sep 25, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

This week the finance minister, Harris Georgiades, told parliament that government income from natural gas could reach €500-€600 million per year in around 12 years’ time. As part of the Aphrodite contract, government revenue will start to flow after the energy companies have recouped their costs. This is one reason why Georgiades mentioned 12 years from now, with the hope that production starts in 2020. Total general government revenue in 2015 was €6.9bn. The gas revenue could therefore add...

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14 Sep 2016 Country Analysis update: solution prospects held at 40%

Posted by on Sep 17, 2016 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Sapienta Economics is holding the prospects of a solution of the Cyprus problem at 40%, following a somewhat cautious statement on Wednesday at the end of the intensive phase of meetings between the president of the Republic of Cyprus and leader of the Greek Cypriot community, Nicos Anastasiades, and the president of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and leader of the Turkish Cypriot community, Mustafa Akinci. In a joint statement read by the UN special adviser,...

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