30 Apr 2017 Exec summary Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus

Posted by on Apr 30, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

The following is a shortened version of executive summary in the monthly, in-depth Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus. For more about Country Analysis Cyprus visit here. For subscription options, visit the subscription page  Political analysis and outlook: With presidential elections due in early 2018, expectations for a solution of the Cyprus problem are low, and with Turkey reacting to offshore gas drilling, risks to political and economic stability are rising. Structural reforms and natural gas: Contracts for the third gas licensing...

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16 Apr 2017 Why are SME bad loans rising?

Posted by on Apr 16, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Banks made good progress during 2016 in cutting bad loans. By the end of the year, the stricter category of non-performing exposures (NPEs) had fallen year on year by €3.1bn to €24.2bn, while non-performing loans (NPLs) on a more than 90 days past due (90+ DPD) basis had declined by an even larger €3.8bn. This produced an NPE ratio of 46.2% and an NPL ratio (90+ DPD) of 33.9%. Under rules set by the Central Bank of Cyprus, banks are...

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31 Mar 2017 Turkey’s next moves over Cyprus and gas

Posted by on Mar 31, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Last week, Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued another statement about offshore hydrocarbons exploration in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Turkey has been issuing statements since 2004, when the Republic of Cyprus (ROC) first delineated the EEZ. For reasons I shall explain below, the latest statement has been keeping me awake at night. Read full article...

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26 Mar 2017 What’s behind the EU-Cyprus budget spat?

Posted by on Mar 26, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

On Tuesday, Finance Minister, Harris Georgiades told state radio that the Eurogroup meeting for eurozone finance ministers had accepted his position on the government’s budgetary policy. While there was no specific reference to Cyprus in the official Eurogroup statement by the president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, he did say that during the meeting they had “followed up on the implementation of the budgetary plans” (of all member states). Dijsselbloem added they would “take stock again on the implementation of the budgetary...

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12 Mar 2017 No solution – no UN and no gas?

Posted by on Mar 12, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Efforts to solve the Cyprus problem are dying fast. In an interview with Kibris on Monday, the UN Special Advisor, Espen Barth Eide said something that should wake everyone up on this island. Translated back from the Turkish, he said: “If the process fails, I have the feeling that it will not be possible to expect the UN to come again after a couple of years when things improve and give it another try. I don’t know. This is...

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04 Mar 2017 Updating Cyprus’money-laundering record

Posted by on Mar 4, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Just over two weeks ago, Transparency International published a report called “Top Secret Countries Keep Financial Crime Fighting Data to Themselves”. Transparency and good preventive practices are important because money-laundering cases are difficult to prove. The Magnitksy case, for example, has been open in several jurisdictions for years (although the UK never opened a case on the matter) and despite Cyprus and other jurisdictions co-operating together on it through Europol, to date no one has even been charged, let...

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05 Feb 2017 Will Cypriots spend or save their extra income?

Posted by on Feb 5, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

If you earn a gross salary of more than €1,500 per month, you will have noticed an increase in your net income at the end of January. This is because the ‘special contribution’, introduced as part of the bailout programme, expired at the end of 2016. How big that increase was depends on how much you earned in the first place. Read full article...

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29 Jan 2017 Is the East Med gas pipeline an option for Cyprus?

Posted by on Jan 29, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

The Cyprus News Agency (CNA) reported this week that the cost of the EastMed pipeline from Israel to Cyprus, Crete, the Peloponnese in Greece and then Italy would be $6bn. This is close to the $5.7bn figure cited by Globes a few months ago. CNA also said that a study presented in Brussels had found the pipeline to be commercially viable and technically feasible. Subscribers to my monthly report will have already know that I suspect the reported figure is...

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22 Jan 2017 Where might Juncker’s €3.1bn come from?

Posted by on Jan 22, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

The Cyprus News Agency (CNA) reported last week that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the Commission could allocate €3.1 billion to Cyprus in case of a solution and that this would be part of the Multiannual Financial Framework. EU officials have not confirmed the figures. What we do know, however, is that the EU is not at liberty just to spend money as it likes. Funds will either have to come from existing programmes or from a special...

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15 Jan 2017 Bank of Cyprus and the long road back

Posted by on Jan 15, 2017 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Next week Bank of Cyprus (BoC) will start trading on the London Stock Exchange. This follows an announcement last week that it had fully repaid all Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to the Central Bank of Cyprus. ELA, as its name implies, is the last resort for a bank. When a bank has lent out more than it has on deposit, which is often the case in modern banking, it normally fills the gap with interbank lending. When other banks...

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